Statistics from the US Treasury Department show that the spread between 2-year and 10-year treasury yields recently reached 19 basis points, the lowest difference since August 2007. This is a far cry from the 127-basis point spread from December 2016 when the Federal Reserve became more serious about raising rates. If the 10-year yield does not start to embrace recent rate hikes, it could soon trade lower than the 2-year yield and the yield curve could invert, which appears to be the direction it is heading.
It is worth noting that an inverted yield curve occurred before the recessions of 1981, 1991, and 2000, and it inverted two years before the 2008 financial crisis. As a predictor of market downturns, it has become somewhat of an accurate beacon.
While there is no crystal ball and "black swans" ofter trigger market shifts, if history is a guide, add the current yield-curve shifts to the growing list of predictors of an impending correction in the markets. Retail continues to contract with store closings and over $38 billion in debt subject to restructuring over the next 2.5 years, and $3 trillion in US bonds is maturing over the next five years in an increased interest rate environment. Also, recent evidence of housing bubbles is surfacing in Boston, Seattle, Denver, Dallas, Atlanta, Portland, San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York.
Despite evidence of continued market growth, cracks seem to be getting progressively deeper.
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